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target price for Bitcoin
Nov. 27th, 2013 05:40 pmThis short post is an attempt to estimate the target value of the Bitcoin in the best case scenario, which is when Bitcoin becomes one of the most widely used currencies in the world.
I don't pretend to give very accurate estimate - only an order of magnitude.
Assuming the same velocity of money for Bitcoin as exists now for M2 aggregate, total value of Bitcoins should be around total amount of M2 in the world today, or at least no less than 2 * M2(USA), e.g. $2*1013. Considering total possible amount of bitcoins to be 2*107, obvious target price is $2*1013 / 2*107 = $1,000,000. Please note that this is lower bound, since M2 grows pretty fast and will probably grow ten times by the year 2040, when number of bitcoins will reach its limit.
So there.
I don't pretend to give very accurate estimate - only an order of magnitude.
Assuming the same velocity of money for Bitcoin as exists now for M2 aggregate, total value of Bitcoins should be around total amount of M2 in the world today, or at least no less than 2 * M2(USA), e.g. $2*1013. Considering total possible amount of bitcoins to be 2*107, obvious target price is $2*1013 / 2*107 = $1,000,000. Please note that this is lower bound, since M2 grows pretty fast and will probably grow ten times by the year 2040, when number of bitcoins will reach its limit.
So there.